
The key to understanding the JonBenét Ramsey murder case 
Who Murdered JonBenét Ramsey?
To answer that question, perhaps it's best to listen to John and Patsy
Ramsey, the parents of the victim:
LARRY KING: "So you agree that whoever authored
the ransom note probably killed the child?"
JOHN RAMSEY: "I agree." PATSY RAMSEY: "I would agree with that." (Source: the Larry King Live show  May 31, 2000  CNN cable channel) 
Who Wrote The Ransom Note?
You are about to figure that out on your own.
About This Web Page
What you are about to read, is a different type of ransom note analysis
than has previously appeared on the Internet. To our knowledge this
type of analysis has never been performed by any amateur or expert.
Until now, all previous analysis of the random note has been by handwriting
experts who can only offer their professional "opinion" as an end product.
This web page was not written to offer any "opinion". It is not
a "handwriting analysis". Nor does the author claim to have the lest
bit of background or interest in "handwriting analysis". This web
page presents only solid visual evidence and calculations that can be easily
witnessed and verified by the reader. If you have the concentration
to read through this entire web page, and the intelligence to comprehend
it, by the time you are finished reading there should be no doubt in your
mind who wrote the famous Ramsey ransom note.
Weighing The Competition
To date, there have probably been a dozen or more experts in the field
of handwriting analysis who have examined the ransom note and compared
it to the handwriting of Patsy Ramsey, the mother of JonBenét.
The conclusions of those experts has been split between Patsy Ramsey definitely
being the author of the note, and Patsy not having a thing to do with it.
However, no handwriting analysis expert, including those hired by the Ramsey
team of lawyers, has been unable to completely rule out Patsy as the author.
Here is a typical statement by one of the experts who reviewed the ransom
note and compared it to the handwritten exemplars of Patsy Ramsey:
Leonard Speckin, (private forensic document analyst): "When I compare the handwriting habits of Patsy Ramsey with those in the note, there exists agreement to the extent that some of her individual letter formations and letter combinations do appear in the ransom note. When this agreement is weighed against the number, type and consistency of the differences present, I am unable to identify Patsy Ramsey as the author of the note with any degree of certainty. I am, however, unable to eliminate her as the author." 
Note the underlined areas in the quote above.
Mr. Speckin notes that everybody sees some characteristic match between
Patsy's handwriting and the ransom note, but it is not enough to positively
identify Patsy as the author. Mr. Speckin, like all the other experts
in his field of handwriting analysis, has a keen eye for spotting very
specific traits in personal writing styles. Even Lin Wood, the Ramsey's
lawyer, knows there are consistencies between the ransom note and Patsy
Ramsey's handwriting. Here is Wood's attempt to brush off those consistencies
with the same type of rhetoric Leonard Speckin used:
"It is very difficult for one to be eliminated
as the author of an individual writing because we all tend to learn how
to write in similar ways. But the dissimilarities are so great that
I believe any legitimate examiner would conclude that there's little or
no chance that Patsy Ramsey wrote the note".
(NBC Today Show  Katie Couric interview  12/27/01) 
The problem Speckin and his peers have, is the
note was written by someone trying to disguise their writing.
Simply put, both Wood and Speckin know that an agreement exists that some
of Patsy Ramsey's letter formations do match the ransom note, but no "legitimate
examiner" in the field of handwriting analysis knows what to do with that
informationso they discard it in favor of the bigger picture.
However, if Speckin and his peers had stronger backgrounds in statistical
mathematics, they wouldn't be so quick to wave off a common consensus which
on the surface appears to be only a minor detail. As you are
about to see, the key to unlocking the mystery of the ransom note doesn't
lie in any expert's opinion of handwriting analysis, it begins and ends
with
mathematics.
Heads or Tails?
Not very many people are familiar with statistical
mathematics, or the mathematical ratio of odds. You can witness this
any day of the year by the hundreds of thousands of people who throw money
away in Las Vegas, making bets on game tables where the odds virtually
guarantee you will lose The following is a simple lesson which will
give you the basics you need to know.
Every coin has two sides. The odds that a coin toss will land on "heads" is a simple ratio of 1 in 2 possibilities, which is normally represented as 2:1 odds. The odds of two consecutive tosses resulting in heads is 2:1 x 2:1 = 4:1. The odds of three consecutive tosses resulting in heads is 2:1 x 2:1 x 2:1 = 8:1. And...If you're foolish to bet that heads will come up five times in a row, the odds are:
2:1 x 2:1 x 2:1 x 2:1 x 2:1 = 32:1.
Powerball Anyone?
In the midwestern United States, several states
have joined together to run a multistate "Powerball" lottery with huge
jackpots. Since so many people can play, they need a game with large
odds against winning. In the Powerball lottery game, the winner has
to pick the correct five numbers from a set of 50 numbered balls, and
they have to pick the correct "Powerball" number from a separate set of
36 balls. The Powerball multiplies the odds of the regular 50ball
lottery by the number of "power balls"in this case 36. If we were
to apply a Powerball lottery to our five coin toss example above the resulting
odds would be:
36:1 x (2:1 x 2:1 x 2:1 x 2:1 x 2:1) = 1152:1
Obviously, the smart person who wouldn't bet on five coin tosses resulting in heads at 32:1 odds would stay far away from an enhanced version of the same game that includes a Powerball which brings the chance of winning down to 1 in 1152 sessions of the game.
But what if we were using a dice instead of a coin and we're trying to predict what number would come up? A dice has six sides instead of just two, so the chances a number will show up on any given roll is 1 in 6 possibilities, or 6:1 odds. If you substitute the ratio 6:1 for every 2:1 in the formula above, you will discover that the odds of the same number coming up on a series of five dice rollswhen you also have to correctly guess the Powerball is:
36:1 x (6:1 x 6:1 x 6:1 x 6:1 x 6:1) = 27,9936:1
Know anyone foolish enough to bet you that the same number will come up on five dice rolls while they also pick a correct random number from 1 to 36? If you do, be sure to take their bet, because they have 1 chance in 27,9936 of winning your money.
By now you're probably asking, "What does all
this gambling stuff have to do with the JonBenét Ramsey case, and
specifically the ransom note?!" Well, you're about to find out.
Just make sure you understand the "gambling stuff' above, or you're wasting
your time proceeding any further.
A Little Background History
Back in 1998, a freelance writer from Boulder,
Colorado named Frank Coffman did an analysis of the ransom note compared
to an application submitted by Patsy Ramsey to enter JonBenét in
a Boulder parade. Mr. Coffman's work was impressive for someone who
probably hadn't done any prior handwriting analysis. He was able
to point out consistencies in letter formations contained on both the application
and ransom note that could be easily seen by anybody who took the time
to look. Perhaps some of the consistencies Coffman found may even
be the same as Leonard Speckin and Lin Wood noted in their statements above.
The only real criticism that could be made of Coffman's work was while
the application contained Patsy Ramsey's name and signature, there was
still no proof that she actually wrote it. That changed recently.
On December 11, 2001, for the first time, Patsy Ramsey had to answer questions under oath. The questions were asked in a deposition by Darnay Hoffman, a lawyer representing a man named Chris Wolf in a libel suit filed in civil court. Patsy positively identified a pageant and parade application and as being her handwriting and signature. This web page will deal only with those known samples of Patsy's writing.
Since Frank Coffman's analysis was based on that
recently identified application, we will be using the same examples sited
in his 1998 analysis as a starting point, and also add examples of our
own. Note that while the consistencies in the examples we are using
might possibly be the same as those referenced by Leonard Speckin, the
actual examples used does not effect the outcome of this analysis.
If Leonard Speckin found a completely different set of consistencies of
the same quality and quantity the end result of our analysis would be exactly
the same. It should also be noted that while we are working with
only two of Patsy Ramsey's writing samples, the Boulder police removed
writing samples from the Ramsey house that spanned a period of roughly
10 years. While we are limited in the amount of Patsy's writing samples,
Leonard Speckin and the other experts had volumes of additional samples
to work with. They undoubtedly found many more consistencies than
we need in the analysis on this web page. Chet Ubowski of the Colorado
Bureau of Investigation is said to have found 24 of 26 letters in the ransom
note which matched exemplars from Patsy Ramsey.
(If you are not familiar with the actual threepage
ransom note and/or the two applications, you can view copies of them by
clicking
HERE.)
The Analysis
Now let's take a look at the first of a series
of handwriting characteristics which are common between the ransom note
and the pageant application. This is the first of nine examples which
show that while Patsy attempts to disguise her writing, she can't help
but to slip back to her normal printing habits on occasion.





Patsy Ramsey switches back and forth between printed block letters and cursive script letters at random when printing. 



How significant is the characteristic in the above exemplar? Both Patsy Ramsey and the author of the ransom note have a consistent habit of switching back and forth between normal printed letters and script writing. There are only three possible variations the author of the ransom note could have used which are listed in the box above. That gives us a oneinthree possibility or 3:1 odds if we were to guess which characteristic any person would use when writing an identical exemplar.
Now let's look at eight more exhibits, which show
identical characteristics between Patsy Ramsey's known writing and
the ransom note:





Patsy Ramsey connects the cross stroke on the letter "t" to the following letter "e" she prints. 








Patsy Ramsey switches back and forth between a "cursive" style letter "a" and a "manuscript" style letter at random intervals. 








Patsy Ramsey forms the letter "y" with a ushaped arc to the right followed by a straight line downward. 



Let's pause for a moment and note something worth mentioning. Did you notice in the last three exhibits (2, 3 & 4) that the odds increased from 2:1 to 3:1 to 6:1? And remember Lin Wood's comment about the "dissimilarities" in the ransom note? Well, what you should have noticed is that dissimilarities in this analysis are actually other possible variations that the author of the note could have used but didn't. The more variations that were available to the note's author the higher the odds that author's exemplars would not match Patsy Ramsey's. It's like adding more sides to a dice, the more sides you add the more numbers there are  and the less chance you have that the number you guessed will match the number that is about to be rolled.
Now lets look at the last five exhibits and their
odds:





Patsy Ramsey starts capital letters with an overhang on the left side of the vertical line rather than starting at the top point of the line. 








Patsy Ramsey connects the cross stroke on the letter "t" to the following letter "h" she prints. 








Patsy Ramsey connects the tail on the lowercase letter "e" to the next letter she prints. 








Patsy Ramsey will end the letter "i" with a slight sweeping motion to the right, forming a small hook, instead of in just a straight downward stroke. 








Patsy Ramsey connects the horizontal stroke on a capital letter "A" to the following letter. 



OK, so now you've seen nine exhibits which contain
exemplars that match Patsy Ramsey's handwriting to the ransom note.
Now lets take a look at exactly what happens when we tally up all the odds
from all nine exhibits.
The Math
Remember our example above how the odds on a
coin toss was 2:1, and a dice roll was 6:1? Well, if we use the same
formula using the odds shown in the exhibits above, we can come up with
the probability someone else would print all of the nine examples above
the same way Patsy Ramsey does. Our new mathematical equation looks
like this:
3:1 x 2:1 x 3:1 x 6:1 x 3:1 x 2:1 x 2:1 x 4:1 x 2:1 = 10,368:1
Interesting number, isn't it?  Slightly over
"10 thousand to one" odds! There is only a 1 in 10,368 chance
that anyone other than Patsy Ramsey would write with all nine of
the above characteristics. Are you willing to place a bet at those
odds? And can you imagine what that number would grow to if we added
in all the other letters on the ransom note which matched Patsy Ramsey's
handwriting? Remember those 24 of 26 letters that Chet Ubowski supposedly
found in the ransom note which matched samples from Patsy Ramsey?
Just 10 more matching letters at 2:1 odds each, added to our existing nine
exemplars, would bring the odds over 10 million to one.
Care To Play Powerball?
Statistics show that the number of children killed by an intruder in
their own home are not very high. There are however, cases like Heather
Dawn Church (1991), and Stephanie Crowe (1998) where an intruder broke
in and murdered the child right in the home with the parents sleeping.
In other cases like Polly Klass (1993) an intruder entered the home, abducted
the child, and then murdered the child outside the home. And there
are also cases like Jaclyn Dowaliby (1988), Sabrina Aisenberg (1997), and
JonBenét Ramsey (1996), where the authorities suspect a parent
committed the murder and staged a breakin to coverup the crime.
For our purposes, we will assume that every year an adult is sick
and perverted enough to break into a home and murder a young girl.
A visit to the U.S. Census Department web page tells us that there are 41, 077,577 children between the ages of 5 14 living in the United States at the present time. The Census Department also tells us that 7,778 of those children live in Boulder, Colorado. If we divide both those numbers in half to roughly represent only the females in those groups, we have the numbers (20,538,788 / 3889) of young U.S. and Boulder girls that a sadistic pedophile/murderer would target in the prime 514 year old age range. Simplified with a common denominator, we can see the odds that during the next 1year period, if a young girl is murdered by a sadistic intruder, the chances she will live in Boulder, Colorado are:
5281:1
That's our Powerball. For every 5281 young girls in the target age range, one lives in Boulder. Now let's add the Powerball to the previous equation which gave us 10,368:1 odds as a handwriting result:
5281:1 x (3:1 x 2:1 x 3:1 x 6:1 x 3:1 x 2:1 x 2:1 x 4:1 x 2:1) = 54,753,408:1
Can you figure out that number? It's well
over 54 million! Let's just round it off to a nice even 55 million
to 1 for discussion purposes. You probably don't realize it,
but those odds are 156 times greater than the chances you will be
struck and killed by lightening any time during the next year  estimated
by the National Weather Service at 350,000 to 1 odds. Those odds
are also over 3 times greater than your chances of buying the winning
lottery ticket in any of the state lottery drawings where the odds are
fixed at 15,890,700 to 1.
Conclusion
If you haven't figured it all out yet, we can
make it simple for you with the following statement:
The chances that during the next year  a girl between the ages of 514 who lives in Boulder, Colorado  will be killed by an unknown intruder who enters her home  and the intruder's handwriting will match nine characteristics in her mother's handwriting are:
ONE in 55 MILLION
Now realize that same probability existed in the
year 1996, and specifically on December 25the night JonBenét Ramsey
was murdered.
LARRY KING: "So you agree that whoever
authored the ransom note probably killed the child?"
JOHN RAMSEY: "I agree." PATSY RAMSEY: "I would agree with that." 
Or was she covering for someone else...
To see the public's responce to this web
page CLICK HERE!
This web page is part of a continuing
series of articles which dispel the
myths and expose the real facts in the
JonBenét Ramsey murder case.
For a complete index of those articles,
CLICK
HERE
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The context of this web page is the opinion of its author and is based on published information readily available on the Internet. All original writing is copyright and can not be used without permission. 
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Revised: 12/30/01